Next government's Home Secretary faces an overflowing in-tray on asylum
A fascinating new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) attempts to predict the outlook for asylum policy in 2025 following the next election.
You can download the 36-page report here.
According to the report, the current crisis in the UK's asylum system can be expected to be significantly worse by the next general election, with the new government likely facing a permanent backlog of thousands of asylum seekers living in limbo due to the Illegal Migration Act 2023.
The report finds there is only a very narrow window for success on asylum in the next 12-18 months, and it explores five potential scenarios that could face the next government. Even if the Illegal Migration Act is fully implemented, IPPR predicts it is more likely that new arrivals of asylum seekers will still outpace removals.
Marley Morris, the report's author, said: "This will mean a growing population of people permanently in limbo, putting huge pressure on Home Office accommodation and support systems – plus a risk of thousands of people who vanish from the official system and are at risk of exploitation and destitution. Any incoming government would be likely to face a dire and increasingly costly challenge which it would need to address urgently from the outset – there will be no option to ignore or sideline the crisis it inherits."
The five potential scenarios considered by the report are as follows:
• Scenario 1: Pyrrhic victory (likelihood: very low)
Rwanda plan is ruled lawful and government introduces key provisions of Illegal Migration Act. Home Office radically expands detention. New deals are secured with other countries. Numbers fall sharply and government claims success, though unclear whether fall is due to deterrence effect or other factors. Detention and removals costs make the policy highly expensive. Build-up of 'limbo' asylum population in Home Office accommodation. But undocumented population grows more quickly, with many avoiding Home Office contact due to fear of removal to Rwanda.
• Scenario 2: Marginal impact (likelihood: moderate to likely)
Rwanda plan is ruled lawful and government introduces key provisions of Illegal Migration Act. However, logistical barriers make removals challenging. Number of arrivals slows a little though unclear why. There is a build-up of the 'limbo' asylum population, as well as a growing undocumented population outside Home Office accommodation.
• Scenario 3: Status quo (likelihood: moderate to likely)
Rwanda plan is ruled unlawful and so the government holds off introducing the key provisions of Illegal Migration Act, while searching for new deals and seeking to improve the agreement with Rwanda. Number of arrivals continues at similar pace. There are calls for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR but the government faces paralysis.
• Scenario 4: Steamrolling ahead (likelihood: low to moderate)
Rwanda plan is ruled unlawful so the government seeks to renegotiate Rwanda and secure alternative deals. There are calls for the UK to withdraw from the ECHR to deliver on the Rwanda plan. Under pressure from backbenchers as the general election approaches, the government introduces the key provisions of Illegal Migration Act despite no lawful agreement in place with a safe third country. Numbers of arrivals continues at pace and there is a growing build-up of the 'limbo' asylum population, although the issue is clouded by the ensuing election campaign.
• Scenario 5: Spiralling disaster (likelihood: low)
Rwanda plan is ruled unlawful but the government introduces the key provisions of Illegal Migration Act regardless, stating that it will rework the plan and negotiate new deals shortly. A new humanitarian crisis leads to a surge in arrivals to Europe and escalating numbers of people crossing the Channel in small boats. With an unsustainable number of people in the 'limbo' asylum population, there is widespread overcrowding and major cost pressures. At the same time, there is a swiftly growing undocumented population outside Home Office accommodation.
As IPPR explains, the next government's Home Secretary will be confronted with an overflowing in-tray on asylum.
The report concludes: "Under most plausible scenarios – even those most advantageous from the government's perspective – the likelihood of small boat arrivals falling to zero or negligible amounts is very low. At the same time, there is little chance of the UK ramping up large-scale removals to safe third countries (even the 100 per month in scenario 1 is highly ambitious in the context of past levels of returns).
"Ultimately, this means that the window for government success on asylum is remarkably narrow: under most scenarios where the government fully introduces the new Illegal Migration Act, arrivals will outpace removals and – due to the policy of permanent inadmissibility – this will lead to a growing population of people in limbo. This in turn will place renewed pressure on Home Office accommodation and support systems and/or a large undocumented population vulnerable to destitution and exploitation. The scenario analysis therefore illustrates the immense task facing the government in implementing the Illegal Migration Act effectively – and its likely legacy after the next general election."