Government report at centre of recent controversy published, finds "relatively little evidence" that migration has caused significant displacement of UK natives from jobs
A Government report on the impacts of migration on UK native employment has been published today.
We reported yesterday on the controversy surrounding claims that the report had been withheld by Downing Street because of its findings.
You can now read the 76-page report in full here.
No doubt, the report will generate more media controversy and headlines, but we'll simply reproduce the key highlights of the report's executive summary below:
This report reviews the evidence around the impacts of migration on the employment of existing UK native workers. The purpose of this review, carried out by government analysts, has been to consider comprehensively the evidence in this area and to reconcile the wide-ranging conclusions from the economic literature, in order to set out the agreed cross-government view. Importantly, it is recognised that the impacts of migration on the labour market depend on a range of factors that vary over time, and therefore the impact of migration on the labour market cannot be condensed to a 'one size fits all' answer.
It is difficult to predict the impacts of future migration on native employment with any great degree of certainty. However, government analysts nonetheless must make an informed judgement based on existing evidence in order to provide robust advice on government policy. To this end, the conclusions below summarise our view of the evidence to date, which we will employ in making that judgement in the future, according to the economic and wider context.
• Overall, our assessment is that there is relatively little evidence that migration has caused statistically significant displacement of UK natives from the labour market in periods when the economy has been strong. However, in line with some recent studies, there is evidence for some labour market displacement in recent years when the economy was in recession.
• Displacement effects are also more likely to be identified in periods when net migration volumes are high, rather than when volumes are low – so analyses that focus on data prior to the 2000s are less likely to find any impacts. In addition, where displacement effects are observed, these tend to be concentrated on low skilled natives.
• This suggests that the labour market adjusts to increased net migration when economic conditions are good. But during a recession, and when net migration volumes are high as in recent years, it appears that the labour market adjusts at a slower rate and some short-term impacts are observed.
• To date there has been little evidence in the literature of a statistically significant impact from EU migration on native employment outcomes, although significant EU migration is still a relatively recent phenomenon and this does not imply that impacts do not occur in some circumstances.
• The evidence also suggests that where there has been a displacement effect from a particular cohort of migrants, this dissipates over time – that is, any displacement impacts from one set of new arrivals gradually decline as the labour market adjusts, as predicted by economic theory.
New research says migrants founded 1 in 7 of all UK companies
Meanwhile, a report released earlier this week by the Centre for Entrepreneurs and DueDil says migrant entrepreneurs are behind one in seven of all UK companies.
You can read the report here.
According to the report, there are 456,073 migrant entrepreneurs in the UK. Migrants have founded or co-founded 464,527 companies, representing 14.5% or 1 in 7 of all UK companies.
Migrant entrepreneurs in the UK represent 155 nationalities, with Irish, Indian, German, American and Chinese among the top performing nationalities.
Migrant-founded companies are said to employ at least 1.16 million people around the UK.
DueDil founder and CEO Damian Kimmelman, himself an American serial "migrant entrepreneur", said: "Immigration is one of Britain's most emotive topics for debate. Sadly, opinions are rarely informed by evidence. This game-changing research proves that migrant entrepreneurs are hyper-productive, net contributors to the UK economy. History tells us that the most productive states always encourage intellectual and technological ferment; that's what we're seeing in Britain right now, and we must celebrate it".
Centre for Entrepreneurs chairman and serial entrepreneur Luke Johnson said: "The majority of the public appreciate the value of migrant entrepreneurs, yet our politicians and media send out negative signals that risk alienating this vital group of job creators. Given the huge contribution of migrant entrepreneurs, we are calling upon the media and politicians to join us in celebrating those who come to our country and launch businesses."
Matt Smith, Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurs, said: "The contribution of migrant entrepreneurs is, to be frank, breath-taking. Presented with such irrefutable evidence, it is now the responsibility of politicians of all parties to celebrate migrant entrepreneurs' contributions and restate their commitment to maintaining pro-entrepreneurship immigration policies".
A website created for the report at http://www.creatingourjobs.org/ has more information.