The Expert has been studying Afghanistan since 2001 as a UK government political and military analyst and also at the world-acclaimed international think-tank, SIPRI, in Stockholm. He has produced more than 900 Afghanistan Expert Reports for over 150 British and American law firms. He is very responsive to short notice deadlines, has a quick turnaround time and he is very happy to discuss early initial thoughts to assist you and your client at no obligation. He has excellent impartial research, analysis and communication skills and was awarded an MBE for his Afghanistan work in 2005.
Performance feedback – judges:
“I have carefully considered the report of Mr Tim Foxley MBE…I accept that Mr Foxley is an expert. I give weight to his CV. The report complies with the practice direction. He demonstrates a clear understanding of his duties as an expert and his duty to the court…The respondent does not challenge his expertise…The cogent observations of Mr Foxley carry weight. “
(First Tier Tribunal Judge, January 2024)
“Mr Tim Foxley is a well established expert witness who has eighteen years’ experience of studying Afghanistan…His report is objectively written and thoroughly sourced. It is an impressive piece of evidence. I am not surprised that the Respondent takes no issue with it. The report of Mr Foxley therefore amounts to uncontradicted and unchallenged evidence.”
(First Tier Tribunal Judge, January 2021)
“Mr Foxley’s experience and expertise was undisputed by the Respondent at the hearing…I find that he is appropriately qualified to opine upon the matters contained within his report…the report is based upon up to date material from reputable sources…the report reads as balanced and objective; it is not limited to only evidence and conclusions that support the Appellant’s claim. For these reasons I accept Mr Foxley’s expertise and the relevant conclusions of his report…”
(First Tier Tribunal Judge, January 2020)
Performance feedback – lawyers:
“This is a wonderful and robust report!...if there is any type of recommendation I can leave for you anywhere, I would be happy to sing your praises!” (Legal professional, United States, September 2024).
“Many thanks once again for your excellent work on this report – it has been a pleasure to instruct you in this matter.” (Solicitor, UK, February 2024)
“…the Government conceded this case…and decided that – based on the evidence, including your fantastic report – they were eligible… After more than two years of waiting, they are now safe and very happy. Thank you so much again for all of your work on the expert report, especially in such a tight timeframe. It was an essential piece of evidence in our case…I will very likely take on more Afghan cases in the new year and would be very eager to work with you again.” (Solicitor, UK, December 2023)
“You previously provided us with your export report in relation to our client, Mr xxxx, whose appeal was successful and he stay in the UK. Your report was an essential tool in defeating the deportation order.” (Solicitor, UK, August 2023)
“It was an excellent result and your report was incredibly helpful, thank you!!!” (Solicitor, UK, September 2022)
“Can’t tell you how helpful you have been. You’ve earned every penny.” (Attorney, United States, August 2022)
Since 2012 The Expert has been producing reports for a wide selection of British and American legal firms who have been representing Afghan asylum seekers. These reports – of which he has have produced over 900 – are intended to provide: a clear understanding of the current political, security, social and economic situation in Afghanistan; some expert comments on the plausibility of the client’s case; an assessment of the risks of returning the client based on general conditions and the client’s specific circumstances; an overview of the security and economic situation in Kabul (usually the initial return destination for returned asylum seekers) and also in the client’s original province of origin. Within the report The Expert is comfortable covering specific issues related to the client’s particular circumstances. Examples include: ARAP cases, risks from being a member of the previous government and armed forces, risks from a blood feud, targeting by the Taliban, risks from issues of gender or sexuality, risks from being returned with health and/or mental health problems, risks based on ethnicity (e.g. Hazara) or religion (Shia, Sikh, Christian), risk based on returning homeless or as an orphan and risks of trafficking, destitution and sexual exploitation.
The Expert has been researching and analysing the political and military situation facing Afghanistan, the surrounding region and insurgency/terrorism themes since 2001: within the UK MOD from 2001 – 2012 and with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute from 2006 - 2010. He has undertaken several field trips and operational tours to Afghanistan since 2002. In 2006 and 2011 The Expert was based in Kabul for several months as an analyst within the ISAF headquarters in Kabul, where they regularly briefed senior political and military officials.
The Expert is a Research Fellow at the European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS) and in that capacity has spoken at the United Nations three times on Afghanistan. He has been interviewed on UK and international TV and Radio, including BBC Newsnight and BBC Radio, regarding the security situation in Afghanistan.
In March 2014 The Expert completed a six month temporary position as an Afghanistan insurgency research analyst in the UK Foreign Office. In 2013 he completed a Master’s degree (with distinction) in Peace and Conflict studies at Malmö University, specialising in Afghanistan.
Prior to his last tour in Afghanistan with the Ministry of Defence, The Expert was a researcher at the internationally acclaimed thinktank, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, (SIPRI), within the Armed Conflict and Conflict Management programme from late 2006, specializing in studies of Afghanistan, the surrounding region and related international security themes. The Expert conducted research and analysis, producing several papers, attending or organising conferences on a range of Afghanistan security and political issues. The Expert gave numerous interviews across a variety of TV, radio and the printed press. The Expert undertook several projects commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence and briefed the Swedish Parliamentary Defence Committee. The Expert ran an Afghanistan-related blog featuring political and military analysis, hosted on the SIPRI website and undertook a field trip for two weeks with the Norwegian Provincial Reconstruction Team in 2008 in North West Afghanistan as an independent researcher. The Expert presented their papers to a range of civilian and military audiences, including RUSI, the Finnish National Defence College, the Swedish government and NATO.
For the period July 2009 to December 2009 The Expert was employed by the Afghanistan/Pakistan team of the UK Foreign Office as an exchange officer to the Swedish Foreign Ministry to advise on Afghanistan matters during the Swedish Presidency of the EU.
The Expert worked for the UK Government from 1987 to 2014. As an independent analyst and researcher, most of their regular written work is now released and available via social media (see https://afghanhindsight.wordpress.com/). For example:
“Targeting of Hazaras continues”, article dated 25 September 2024.
“Afghanistan: Prospects for 2024”, article dated 11 January 2024.
“A Force of Moderation or Radicalisation? The Role of Afghanistan’s Ulema” article for RUSI (with Dr Antonio Giustozzi), dated 26 January 2023
“Taliban continue to target former members of the previous government”, article dated 13 January 2023.
“Kabul still very vulnerable to terror attacks”, article dated 16 December 2022.
“The Taliban Don’t Know What To Do – Afghanistan’s Challenges”, article for Nine Dash Line Journal, dated 7 September 2022
“Spike of violence across the country”, article dated 4 May 2022.
“Taliban house to house searches intimidate the population”, article dated 10 March 2022.
“A Perfect Storm Of Crises: Afghanistan in 2022”, article for Nine Dash Line Journal, dated 17 February 2022.
“UN Secretary General Report on Afghanistan: ‘staggering scale of vulnerability across the country’”, article dated 11 February 2022.
“Afghanistan in 2022: Less fighting but bleaker humanitarian prospects”, article dated 12 January 2022.
“Migration crisis headed to Europe?”, article, 10 December 2021.
“Afghanistan over the next two years: what types of violence, what types of triggers?”, article, dated 15 September 2021.
“Are the Taliban’s problems only just beginning?”, article, dated 18 August 2021.
“Taliban Triumphant”, article, dated 16 August 2021.
“Where is Afghanistan going?”, article, dated 14 July 2021.
“UN Security Council report – more bleak reading…”, article dated 26 March 2021.
“Rise of militias and warlords: northern Afghanistan”, article, dated 4 February 2021.
“Afghanistan: Prospects for 2021”, article, dated 14 January 2021.
“Kabul security situation”, article, dated 9 September 2020.
“What direction for Afghanistan? Possible scenarios”, article for European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), October 2020.
“Islamic State in Afghanistan: future spoiler?”, article for European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), May 2020.
“ISKP attacking minorities in Afghanistan”, article, dated 25 March 2020.
“Peace stumbles, violence resumes”, article, dated 4 March 2020.
“Taliban announce 2019 Spring Offensive”, article, dated 13 April 2019.
“Prospects for Peace”, article, dated 29 January 2019.
“Wars today cannot be won without media”, book review of “Taliban Narratives”, by Thomas Johnson, article dated 17 October 2018.
“Afghanistan: increasing civilian deaths from airstrikes”, article dated 27 September 2018.
“Taliban announce 2017 Spring Offensive”, article dated 28 April 2017.
“Afghanistan: Prospects for 2017”, article dated 25 January 2017.
“To what extent do the Taliban ‘control’ Afghanistan?”, article dated 30 August 2016.
“Refugees: no easy return options…”, article dated 30 March 2016.
“Afghanistan prospects in 2016 – frustration and stalemate”, article dated 26 December 2015.
“Death of Mullah Omar”, article dated 2 August 2015.
“The Taliban’s opium poppy ban in 2000/2001 – lessons from history”, article dated 23 May 2015.
“ISIS in Afghanistan”, article dated 6 March 2015.
A selection of non-Government, open source, papers and research I undertook from 2008 onwards as follows:
“What Will America’s Legacy Be In Afghanistan?”, article for 9 Dash Line analytical journal, April 2020.
“Islamic State in Afghanistan: future spoiler?”, article for European Foundation for South Asian Studies, March 2020
“Changing the message: improving the prospects for conflict resolution in Afghanistan”, paper for Swedish Defence Research Agency, February 2015
“Revolutionary Outcomes? How the Afghanistan conflict might evolve after 2014,” Master’s Thesis paper at Malmö University, August 2013.
“Messaging the Taliban”, chapter in DIIS paper “Taliban talks: past present and prospects”, March 2013
“Deciding the surge: Obama reinforces the war in Afghanistan”, Master’s Degree course paper, January 2013
“Conflict and Development in Afghanistan since 2001: a critical analysis based on Duffield and Uvin”, Master’s Degree course paper, October 2012
“Countering Taliban information operations in Afghanistan”, for US Department of Defence’s National Defence University in their PRISM Journal of the Centre for Complex Operations, September 2010.
“Afghanistan’s neighbours: Great Game or Regional Approach?”, paper commissioned by Swedish Ministry of Defence, August 2010.
“The Taliban’s use of fear: Countering adversary use of fear appeal”, commissioned paper for UK defence research agency, Qinetiq, February 2010.
“The Battle for Hearts and Minds in Afghanistan: the effectiveness of Taliban Information Operations and related communications activities”, paper commissioned by Swedish Ministry of Defence, March 2009.
“Where are we with the Afghan police force?”, published in European Security Review, No. 43, March 2009.
“Security and politics in Afghanistan: progress, problems and prospects”, chapter for SIPRI Yearbook 2009.
“The Provincial Reconstruction Team concept in Afghanistan – progress, problems, prospects and the Norwegian experience”, paper commissioned by the Norwegian Peace Council, November 2008.
“Where will Afghanistan be in 1, 5 and 10 years?”, paper commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence, October 2008.
“Taking the media battle to the Taliban”, published in NATO Review (Afghanistan Part 1 – the issues), August 2008.
“The Taliban’s propaganda activities: how well is the insurgency communicating and what is it saying?”, SIPRI Project Paper, June 200