Majority of top nationalities crossing the Channel have very high initial asylum grant rates
A new briefing paper published today by the Refugee Council finds that three-quarters of people who have crossed the Channel via small boat so far in 2023 would be recognised as refugees if their asylum applications were processed.
You can download the 9-page paper here.
The paper explains that the majority of the top nationalities crossing the Channel in 2023 have very high initial asylum grant rates.
"More than half (54 per cent) have come from just five countries – Afghanistan, Iran, Eritrea, Syria and Sudan. The current grant rates for Afghans, Eritreans and Syrians are 97 per cent and above; for Turkey it is 83 per cent; Iran and Sudan it's 74 per cent and 85 per cent respectively," the Refugee Council notes.
While the overall number of people crossing the Channel is around 20 per cent lower this year than last, the Refugee Council explains that this is due to the reduction in the number of Albanian nationals making the journey. Across other nationalities, there has been a 19 per cent increase in people crossing the Channel. Arrivals from countries such as Afghanistan, Turkey, Eritrea, Sudan, India and Vietnam have all increased this year.
As the briefing paper notes, people currently crossing the Channel will not be able to have their asylum claims heard in the UK due to the new Illegal Migration Act. As a result, tens of thousands of refugees will be denied status and will be left in limbo in the UK.
The Illegal Migration Act allows people to be removed to their country of origin or a safe third country, but the Refugee Council says this will not prove possible in practice in the vast majority of cases.
According to calculations by the Refugee Council, as few as 3.5 per cent of people arriving by small boat will be able to removed from the UK to their own country. Even if the UK is able to remove asylum seekers to Rwanda, the number of people that Rwanda could take annually will be nowhere near the numbers crossing the Channel.
The paper concludes: "Refugee Council's analysis of the latest Home Office data shows that the vast majority of people who are crossing the channel in small boats are refugees, and would be recognised as such if the Home Office processed their claims. The Illegal Migration Act will, however, prevent those refugees from having their applications processed in the UK, instead leaving thousands of people in permanent limbo. We have estimated that this will cost between £8.7bn and £9.6bn in the first three years of the Act being in force. Many could also disappear, leaving them at risk of destitution, exploitation and abuse."