Net migration is falling, but previous Office for National Statistics estimates are significantly revised upwards
In a busy day for immigration news, the Prime Minister responded to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics by accusing the previous Conservative government of running an "open borders experiment" that has left the UK "hopelessly reliant" on immigration.
This morning, the ONS published its latest statistical bulletin on migration covering the year ending June 2024, which can be read online here.
The headline finding is that the ONS currently estimates that net migration in the year ending June 2024 was +728,000. However, this was somewhat overshadowed by a substantial upward revision of the ONS' estimate for the year ending June 2023, with net migration in the period now estimated at a record +906,000. Net migration for the year ending December 2023 was also revised upward by 181,000.
The ONS said the reasons for these revisions include more available data, more information on Ukraine visas, and improvements to how the ONS estimates migration of non-EU+ nationals.
Long-term immigration for the year ending June 2024 was estimated at 1.2 million, down from the updated estimate of 1.3 million in the same period in the previous year. The vast majority of migrants coming to the UK in the year ending June 2024 were non-EU+ nationals (86% of the total).
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford noted that the recent decline in immigration was driven primarily by visa restrictions introduced under the previous Conservative government, including a ban on most family members of students and care workers, as well as higher salary thresholds for skilled worker visas.
As the ONS highlighted in its latest bulletin, however, the 20% drop in net migration comes against a backdrop of "unprecedented" levels of long-term immigration to the UK seen since 2021.
In a speech this afternoon, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the former Conservative government had left an economy that was now "hopelessly reliant on immigration".
Starmer said: "The independent Office of National Statistics has conducted vital work on the state of immigration and found the previous Government were running an open borders experiment. As the ONS sets out, nearly one million people came to Britain in the year ending June 2023. That is four times the migration levels compared with 2019. Time and again – the Conservative Party promised they would get those numbers down. Time and again – they failed. … Policies were reformed deliberately to liberalise immigration. Brexit was used for that purpose to turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders."
The Prime Minister added that a White Paper would be published imminently, which will set out the Government's plan to reduce immigration.
You can read the full transcript of the speech on Labour List.
A Home Office press release published this afternoon says the Labour government is committed to bringing down historically high levels of net migration and restoring order to a "broken" immigration system.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: "In the space of 4 years, net migration rose by almost 5 times to a record high - that shows the serious damage that was done to the immigration system, the lack of proper controls in place, and the over-reliance on a big increase in overseas recruitment. Net migration is still 4 times higher than it was at the beginning of the last Parliament and we are clear that it needs to come down. That is why we are continuing with visa controls and setting out new plans to link them to the system for training and skills here in the UK to tackle the big increase in overseas recruitment over the last few years."
Enver Solomon, Chief Executive of the Refugee Council, responded to the announcement by emphasising that while disrupting smuggling gangs and collaborating with other countries is important, it is not a comprehensive solution to the challenges in the asylum system. He called for a multi-pronged approach, including expanded safe and legal routes for asylum seekers, an improved asylum decision-making process to help refugees rebuild their lives, and a voluntary returns scheme that allows rejected asylum seekers to return with dignity. Solomon also urged the Government to uphold international law and human rights when addressing migration challenges globally.
As we reported on EIN earlier today, the Government announced new measures to tackle visa abuse and migrant worker exploitation, as part of broader efforts to reduce the UK's reliance on migrant workers and to align migration policy with domestic labour needs.
The Home Secretary also announced today that the UK had signed a "landmark" joint statement with Iraq to tackle people smuggling and organised crime networks operating across the region and in Europe.
Yvette Cooper commented: "These landmark commitments between the UK government and Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq send a clear signal to the criminal smuggling gangs that we are determined to work across the globe to go after them. There are smuggler gangs profiting from dangerous small boat crossings whose operations stretch back through northern France, Germany, across Europe, to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and beyond. Organised criminals operate across borders, so law enforcement needs to operate across borders too."
According to the Home Office, the joint statement includes further work on the returns of Iraqis with no right to be in the UK and the continued provision of reintegration programmes in Iraq to support returnees.
The Conservative Party responded on social media to today's various announcements by saying that Labour spent the last parliament persistently voting against stronger controls on immigration and their new policies are doomed to fail.
Kemi Badenoch, the new Leader of the Opposition, said in a speech yesterday that immigration had been too high under her party, but the Conservatives will develop a detailed and coherent plan for immigration to put before the British public before the next election.
"We will not accept the claim that we can only deliver growth by accepting mass migration. We need a new approach, which will mean that young people can build their lives in a country which does not have these pressures on housing and public services. And a new approach that starts by asking why government doesn't seem to be able to deliver that. The answer is because the system is broken, and until you accept that, any politician, all politicians, are doomed to fail," Badenoch stated.
Today also saw the release of the Home Office latest quarterly immigration statistics, which can be accessed from here.
The Migration Observatory noted that the statistics show a sharp decline in visa grants across multiple categories. Health and care visas dropped 85% from their Q3 2023 peak of 45,000 to just 6,600 in Q3 2024, following stricter rules on care sector sponsorship and a ban on family member visas for care workers. Skilled Worker visas outside health and care fell by 32% due to higher salary thresholds, with middle-skilled roles in food and hospitality seeing the steepest decline (64%). Student visa numbers also fell significantly, with a 31% reduction in student and dependant applicants driven primarily by drops in applications from Nigeria and India.
On asylum figures, the Migration Observatory highlighted that the asylum backlog increased slightly from 95,300 in June to 97,200 by September 2024, despite government efforts to speed up the processing of claims. The backlog of asylum appeals rose significantly to 58,000, while the grant rate for asylum seekers dropped from 75% in September 2023 to 52% in September 2024, reflecting the impact of the 2022 Nationality and Borders Act.