Ukraine, Hong Kong and rebound after Covid cause immigration increase, academics say it is not a new normal
As was very widely reported, the latest migration statistics released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that net migration to the UK in the year ending June 2022 was an estimated +504,000, which is by far the ONS' highest ever estimate for a 12-month period.
The full ONS bulletin with all of the details can be accessed here.
As the ONS is keen to emphasise, it should be borne in mind that a) the period leading up to June 2022 was unique, and b) the ONS methods for estimating net migration are experimental and provisional.
Jay Lindop, the director of the ONS Centre for International Migration, explained: "A series of world events have impacted international migration patterns in the 12 months to June 2022. Taken together these were unprecedented. These include the end of lockdown restrictions in the UK, the first full period following transition from the EU, the war in Ukraine, the resettlement of Afghans and the new visa route for Hong Kong British nationals (Overseas), which have all contributed to the record levels of long-term immigration we have seen."
On the experimental and provisional nature of ONS migration statistics, Madeleine Sumption of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford noted that revisions to yesterday's figures can be expected, and such revisions can be substantial. Sumption highlighted that the net migration figure for year ending June 2020, for example, has now been revised down by 170,000.
According to the ONS, the year ending June 2022 saw immigration to the UK reach an estimated 1.1 million, although returning British nationals (especially from Hong Kong) made up around 13% of this total.
The increase in immigration was primarily driven by non-EU nationals, accounting for an estimated 66% of the total and an increase of 379,000 compared with the year ending June 2021. International students on study visas accounted for 39% of long-term immigration of non-EU nationals in the year ending June 2022.
EU immigration remained broadly stable, leading to negative net migration (-51,000) as more EU nationals left than arrived.
Academics highlight record net migration unlikely to become 'new normal'
In a press release, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford highlighted that net migration of over 500,000 should not be expected to become a new normal.
Humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students after the Covid pandemic were the major reasons behind the large increase in immigration levels seen in the year ending June 2022.
Madeleine Sumption said: "These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. We cannot assume they represent a 'new normal', and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers. Some of the most important contributors to non-EU immigration are not expected to continue indefinitely, such as the arrival of Ukrainians."
In a considered post on the UK in a Changing Europe website, Professor Jonathan Portes of King's College London analysed yesterday's migration statistics and concluded that they were not as dramatic as they look, despite what some "hysterical headlines" might suggest.
Professor Portes noted: "‘Record’ immigration is driven by special factors, not least the reopening of travel and the economy post-pandemic, and inflows from Ukraine (and to some extent Hong Kong). Moreover, the ONS has also changed its mind about what happened during the pandemic, revising down its provisional estimates by several hundred thousand. So, today's statistics are not as dramatic as they look. Over the three years to June 2022, net migration averaged about 250,000 annually, of which a bit over 200,000 was from outside the EU. This is not that different from the general post-referendum trend."
Portes added that while the ONS figures do show that Brexit has not reduced net migration, future figures are unlikely to reach the levels seen yesterday, and it is too soon to say whether overall work-related migration will increase.
"Overall, the figures are good news. While Brexit has been a very clear negative for UK trade, the story on migration is much more mixed. The end of free movement doesn't mean the UK is closed to migrants; just open in a different way. The long-term effects will be profound," Portes said.
Home Office figures show annual asylum applications over 72,000
Yesterday also saw the release of the latest Home Office quarterly immigration statistics covering the year ending September 2022.
The figures show that the recent trend of a rise in asylum claims is continuing. The Home Office stated: "There were 72,027 asylum applications (main applicants only) in the UK in the year ending September 2022, over double the number in 2019. This is higher than at the peak of the European Migration crisis (36,546 in year ending June 2016) and is the highest number of applications for almost 2 decades (since 2003)."
The Refugee Council said the increase in asylum applications was unsurprising and the inevitable consequence of a global refugee crisis that is seeing millions of people fleeing their homes due to war, discrimination and persecution.
Decision-making remains low, with only 16,400 initial decisions made on asylum applications in the year ending September 2022. As a result, the asylum backlog continues to grow. The Refugee Council said the scale of the backlog was now staggering.
The Refugee Council commented: "These figures show that the backlog in asylum cases has continued to rise, with a staggering 143,377 people now awaiting an initial decision on their asylum application, an increase of over 20,000 people since the end of June. This is also an increase of 180% since the end of 2019. Of these, nearly 98,000 people (68%) have been waiting over six months. These people are stuck in limbo for months and years on end, unable to work or put down roots in their community, with no sense of when they might receive a decision on their case from the Home Office."
Enver Solomon, CEO of the Refugee Council, called on the Government to set up a dedicated and well-resourced task force to improve the processing of asylum claims.
The Home Office's statistics also showed that a large majority of the asylum claims that are decided continue to be granted.
According to the Home Office, just over three quarters (77%) of the initial decisions in the year ending September 2022 were grants of asylum, humanitarian protection or alternative forms of leave. This is a substantially higher grant rate than in pre-pandemic years and the highest since 82% in 1990.