Latest Office for National Statistics long-term international migration statistics and latest Home Office immigration system statistics released
The latest provisional long-term international migration statistics were released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). They cover the year ending December 2023 and you can read the statistical bulletin online here.
While the ONS estimate for net migration in the year 2023 is down on the estimate for 2022, it remains historically very high at +685,000. This is a decrease of around 10% on the record estimated figure of +764,000 in the year ending December 2022.
Emigration increased in 2023 (532,000 compared to 493,000 in 2022) and immigration decreased, though it remained broadly stable (1,218,000 in 2023 compared to 1,257,000 in 2022).
The ONS says it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend in net migration.
In keeping with the trend seen since Brexit, non-EU nationals accounted for 85% of the total long-term immigration in 2023, similar to the levels in 2022. The top five non-EU nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in 2023 were Indian (250,000), Nigerian (141,000), Chinese (90,000), Pakistani (83,000) and Zimbabwean (36,000).
According to the ONS, work replaced study as the main reason for long-term migration to the UK in 2023. A large number (almost half) of people immigrating for work-related reasons came from India or Nigeria, most commonly in the health and social care sector.
Yesterday, the Home Office was keen to highlight a recent fall in work and study visas. It noted that today's ONS figures would not take into account the major package of measures announced in December to reduce net migration.
The Home Office said visa applications across key routes had fallen in the first 4 months of 2024. A press release stated: "Government measures to tighten student visas, which came into force in January, have prevented most international students starting courses this year from bringing family members with 79% fewer student dependent applications in the first 4 months of 2024. … There were more than 30,000 fewer student visa applications made between January to April 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. … Data also shows that in the first full month the restrictions on care worker dependants were in place, there was a 58% fall in Health and Care dependant application numbers, from 15,100 in April 2023 to 6,400 in April 2024."
In response to today's ONS estimates, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford remarked that net migration had now remained at "unusually high" levels for the third year running, exceeding the average pre-Brexit, pre-Covid levels of around +200,000 to +300,000.
Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory, commented: "This period of high net migration has now persisted for a while, because it has had several different causes. Initially, student visas and Ukrainians drove increases in migration, but in 2023 they were replaced by health and care work visas as the main driver. Meanwhile student emigration hasn't increased as much as expected, because more students have been staying on to work. However, early data suggest we may see a bigger decline later in 2024, following the recent policy changes."
Also today, the Home Office released its latest immigration system statistics covering the year ending March 2024. The various documents can be accessed from here.
The key statistics identified by the Home Office for work and study visas in the year ending March 2024 are as follows:
- there were 315,018 visas granted to work in the year ending March 2024, more than double (+130%) the number prior to the pandemic in 2019;
- 'Skilled Worker – Health and Care' visas have provided the majority of the growth in work visas in the last 2 years, following the expansion of the route in late 2021 to include 'care workers and home carers', with 118,522 grants to main applicants in the latest year;
- in the first quarter of 2024, there were 9,088 'Skilled Worker – Health and Care' visas granted, 75% fewer than the first quarter of 2023 due to a large fall in visas for 'Care workers and home carers';
- there were 290,246 visas granted to dependants of people who had been granted a work visa, 55% more than in the year ending March 2023, primarily in the Health and Care sector;
- 139,175 'Graduate' route extensions were granted to main applicants in the year ending March 2024, 49% higher than in the year ending March 2023, accounting for 40% of work extensions to main applicants.
Asylum applications decreased, with 69,298 main applications in the year ending March 2024 compared to 75,492 in the year ending March 2023.
The number of initial decisions made by the Home Office on asylum applications in the year ending March 2024 increased hugely (up 400%). This was due to the Government's stated aim to clear the legacy backlog of asylum claims by the end of 2023 leading to more asylum decision-makers being employed, along with increased productivity.
The number of positive decisions for asylum applications reached a record high.
The Home Office noted: "A total of 68,564 people were granted refugee status or other leave following an asylum application in the year ending March 2024. This is the highest number of people granted since records began (in 1984), due to the combination of a high grant rate and high volumes of decisions being made."
In addition: "A total of 95,685 people were offered a safe and legal (humanitarian) route to the UK in the year ending March 2024. This includes refugees resettled to the UK and family members of refugees, although the majority relate to individuals on the specific visa routes for Ukrainian nationals and British National Overseas (BNO) passport holders coming from Hong Kong."