National Crime Agency's annual assessment notes Channel crossings decreased 36% in 2023 but number of persons per boat increased
The National Crime Agency (NCA) released its annual assessment of serious and organised crime yesterday, which said that it is highly likely the threat from organised immigration crime has increased going into 2024.
The 60-page National Strategic Assessment covers developments in 2023 and includes brief sections on modern slavery and human trafficking and on organised immigration crime.
It notes that the number of people arriving in the UK after crossing the Channel by small boat declined in 2023, but this decline has been reversed in 2024.
The report states: "Detections of irregular migrants entering the UK reduced in 2023: there were 36,704 irregular arrivals, one third fewer than in 2022, and 80% of those arrived on small boats. However, evidence suggests that organised immigration crime groups remain a persistent threat and it is highly likely the threat from organised immigration crime has increased going into 2024. Small boat arrivals increased between 01 January and 11 July 2024, with 14,120 recorded arrivals compared to the same period in 2023 (13,133)."
It continued: "Organised criminals overload small boats to maximise profits. Consequently, the average number of persons per boat increased from 41 in 2022 to 49 in 2023. This, together with operating models that include migrants wading out to boats or transferring from taxi boats, has increased the likelihood of fatalities."
According to the Press Association (PA), the provisional total for small boat arrivals in 2024 had increased to 18,574 as of yesterday. PA calculates that this is an 11% increase over the same period in 2023, but an 8% decrease on the record level of crossings in 2022.
PA reported that the Director General of the NCA, Graeme Biggar, said yesterday that the average number of persons per boat increased to almost 60 in the last month. At a press conference launching the annual assessment, Biggar said: "That is not because the boats have got bigger, it’s because they are packing. So originally, three or four years ago, it was 12 people on the boat, roughly, and they were better designed ribs and the design of boats did change, but that’s not happened over the last few months. They are just trying to pack more and more people on. And of course, that increases the risk to all of those individuals."
Biggar also said that a functioning asylum system would deter Channel crossings. He was asked what he thought would happen following the Government's scrapping of the previous Conservative government's Rwanda policy. The Director General responded: "We have never taken a view on or set out a view on Rwanda as a particular part of that deterrent, that's been implied by others that we have but is not the case. We have consistently said that a deterrent needs to be part of the response. We haven't commented on Rwanda.
"Deterrence can take lots of different forms. An asylum system that works quickly and effectively and results in returns is also a deterrent. I won't get into commenting on government policy but I don't think there is a difference of view between us or them on the importance of having a deterrent and the importance of having an asylum system that works well as part of that."
As the Refugee Council has noted, the majority of people crossing the Channel in small boats are fleeing war-torn or oppressive countries where no safe and formal routes exist for making an asylum claim in the UK. Analysis by the Refugee Council has also found that the majority of people are recognised as refugees.
The section on organised immigration crime from yesterday's National Strategic Assessment by the NCA is excerpted and reproduced below:
NCA
National Crime Agency
National Strategic Assessment 2024
of Serious and Organised Crime
[…]
Organised Immigration Crime
Organised immigration crime involves an organised crime group assisting a person to cross borders without legal permission or documentation. Irregular migrants leave their home countries for a number of reasons, including economic opportunities, civil unrest, presence of diaspora/family in Europe, and fear of persecution. Irregular border crossings at the European Union's external border in 2023 were the highest since 2016.
Law enforcement disruptions have had a short-term impact on organised crime group business models. These disruptions have caused diversification of supply routes and sourcing of small boat equipment, increased costs for organised crime groups and migrants, increased concealment of material and displacement of small boats equipment for use elsewhere.
Detections of irregular migrants entering the UK reduced in 2023: there were 36,704 irregular arrivals, one third fewer than in 2022, and 80% of those arrived on small boats. However, evidence suggests that organised immigration crime groups remain a persistent threat and it is highly likely the threat from organised immigration crime has increased going into 2024. Small boat arrivals increased between 01 January and 11 July 2024, with 14,120 recorded arrivals compared to the same period in 2023 (13,133).
Small boats departing from northern France remained the most detected method of moving irregular migrants in 2023, although numbers of arrivals dropped to 29,437 in 2023 compared to 45,755 in 2022. This was mostly due to a 93% reduction in Albanian nationals using small boats which is due to a number of different factors, including law enforcement activity, changes in UK government policy, deportations, diminished demand for travel to the UK, and potential displacement to other methods. Small boat arrivals of other nationalities decreased by 14%. The continued use of refrigerated vehicles and overcrowded and poorly equipped small boats by organised crime groups to facilitate arrivals almost certainly increases the risk of harm posed to migrants.
Afghans were the most commonly detected nationality arriving by small boat in 2023. This is likely due to the continued impact of the Taliban takeover in 2021 which is driving migration out of Afghanistan. Irregular migrants from Iran, Iraq, and Syria were also detected entering the UK in large numbers although these numbers reduced in 2023. Many migrants attempt to settle in other European countries before attempting entry to the UK.
Organised criminals overload small boats to maximise profits. Consequently, the average number of persons per boat increased from 41 in 2022 to 49 in 2023. This, together with operating models that include migrants wading out to boats or transferring from taxi boats, has increased the likelihood of fatalities. 12 migrants were reported as dead or missing in the English Channel in 2023, highlighting the dangers associated with this route. The International Organization for Migration's Missing Migrant Project reported that in January 2024, 226 migrants (including 35 children) are estimated to be dead or missing after attempting to cross the Channel to the UK by boat or other clandestine means since 2014.
Irregular migrants continue to enter the UK clandestinely within vehicles using roll-on/roll-off ferries. Detections of this high-risk method declined through most of 2023. The risks were highlighted in an incident in February 2024 when six people were taken to hospital and two others arrested after they were found in the back of a lorry at Newhaven in East Sussex.
Detections of irregular migrants travelling outbound from the UK to France increased in 2023, including two incidents where 39 migrants were detected in a refrigerated lorry and 22 migrants detected in a trailer. On both occasions, the migrants were of North African origin. It is likely the migrants involved were attempting to avoid French border immigration and visa controls.
Organised crime groups facilitate irregular migrants onto commercial passenger flights for those that can afford the comparatively higher costs. This is quicker and safer than using small boats or concealment in vehicles.
Organised crime groups help migrants to fraudulently obtain entry clearance through 'leave to enter' or 'leave to remain' in the UK under various visa or settlement schemes. By definition, successful deceptions remain undetected, but it is likely they amount to thousands of people per year.
Opportunities offered by the online environment and social media platforms are exploited at all stages of organised immigration crime, including: advertising of illicit services (primarily smuggling and the supply of false documents), recruitment of potential migrants, and communication with the migrants on their journey or amongst other crime group members. Social media and messaging are also used to share travel guidance and give advice on how to frustrate law enforcement activity.
Case Study: Small Boats Smuggling Network
In October 2023, a man who led a small boats people smuggling network was jailed for 11 years after a joint investigation between the NCA and Belgian authorities.
The individual had directed a network of offenders from his home in Ilford, east London. He sourced boats in Turkey and had them delivered to locations in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. He directed members of the network to take them on to the northern French coast, from where migrants would be transported. It is believed he had been involved in smuggling around 10,000 people to the UK.
His arrest triggered a Europe-wide operation to disrupt the other members of the network, which led to arrests in the UK, Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Following his arrest by the NCA a UK court ordered the offender to be extradited to Belgium to face trial. He was found guilty and sentenced to 11 years in prison. Another 19 people connected to the organised crime group were convicted and handed jail terms of between 30 months and eight years.
Changes in Small Boats Activity
[…]
Number of Small Boats Incidents
| 1,110 | 602 | ↓ 46% fewer incidents |
| 2022 | 2023 |
Increased Numbers Per Boat
Despite a decrease in arrivals, there has been an increase in the number of people per boat. This shows an increase in boat size, reflecting the ability of organised crime groups to move more people via fewer launches and the increasing professionalisation of the small boat methodology.
| x41 Average number of people per boat from January to December 2022. | x49 Average number of people per boat from January to December 2023. |
Decreased Incidents
The number of boats detected arriving to, or heading for, the UK decreased in 2023. One boat will typically contain multiple people, as shown on the graph above.