National Audit Office says government must make better use of data to understand the impacts of changes to the visa route
An important new report from the National Audit Office (NAO) yesterday has highlighted significant shortcomings in the Home Office's management of the Skilled Worker visa route.
Image credit: UK GovernmentYou can download the full 58-page report here. An 11-page summary of the report is available here.
Originally introduced in 2020 to mitigate labour shortages following Brexit, the Skilled Worker visa route was intended to provide flexibility in response to economic and policy changes. However, the NAO found that adjustments to entry requirements have often lacked comprehensive impact assessments, creating uncertainty for businesses and sectors reliant on skilled migrant workers.
One of the key concerns raised in the report is the Home Office's inconsistent approach to evaluating the consequences of visa rule changes. While some decisions—such as the inclusion of care workers in 2022—were informed by economic needs, other more recent restrictions, like those implemented in March 2024 to curb net migration, were made with limited consultation or analysis. This lack of foresight has led to unintended consequences, including increased numbers of dependants arriving in the UK and a rise in asylum claims from Skilled Worker visa holders.
The report also highlighted a significant gap in the Home Office's understanding of how the visa route is being used. Forecasts initially estimated that 360,000 visas would be issued in the first three years, yet the actual number was almost three times higher.
The NAO stated: "The Home Office does not have a full understanding of how the Skilled Worker visa route is operating. More people are using the Skilled Worker visa route than the Home Office anticipated in 2020. It forecast that it would issue 360,000 Skilled Worker visas to people entering the country over the first three years but has issued 931,000 visas over this period. This has brought benefits. In December 2024, the Migration Advisory Committee conducted analysis which suggests that, on average, migrants on Skilled Worker visas have a positive net fiscal impact on government finances. However, the higher-than-anticipated use of the route also has consequences, such as an 80% increase in people staying permanently in the UK in 2024, compared with 2021; a 360% increase in the number of family members (dependants) entering the UK annually, from 55,200 in 2021 to 254,100 in 2023; and the number of people claiming asylum after entering the UK on a Skilled Worker visa rising from 53 in 2022 to 5,300 in 2024. The Home Office reviewed the use of the route in 2022 but has not assessed the impact of changes to entry requirements or evaluated the route since its expansion to include care workers. As a result, it does not fully understand how the route is being used, its contribution to the economy, or impacts on skill shortages across different sectors and regions. Further, it does not monitor what happens to people at the end of their visa period. The Home Office has commissioned an evaluation of the route, which will report in 2025."
Collaboration between government departments on immigration and workforce planning has also been lacking. While sectors like IT and engineering have continued to benefit from the visa system, others—including social care, construction, and public sector veterinary services—have struggled due to higher salary thresholds and reduced access to overseas workers. The NAO warned that without better coordination between immigration policies and domestic labour market strategies, workforce shortages could persist, particularly in social care, where demand is projected to rise significantly by 2035.
Despite these issues, the Home Office has made improvements in visa processing times, with 94% of straightforward applications handled within service standards. However, many applications are classified as "complex," removing them from processing targets. The report also found that while customer satisfaction with visa applications is relatively high, the Home Office lacks comprehensive data to fully understand and address service shortcomings.
Efforts to modernise the Skilled Worker visa system have also faced delays. While digital improvements such as eVisas have been introduced, the transformation of the sponsorship system has been pushed back from 2023 to 2028. The Home Office cited limited digital resources and competing priorities, including new visa schemes for Ukrainian refugees and high-potential individuals, as reasons for the slow progress.
In addition to challenges with policy implementation and oversight, the NAO report highlighted growing concerns over non-compliance and potential exploitation within the Skilled Worker visa route. Initially slow to identify risks, the Home Office has recently ramped up enforcement efforts, introducing digital audits, targeted compliance checks, and new fraud detection technology. This has led to a sharp increase in sponsor licence revocations, rising from 273 in 2022 to nearly 1,500 in 2024. Despite these measures, resource limitations mean that only 1% of sponsors have been subject to compliance checks, leaving significant gaps in enforcement. A lack of comprehensive data has further hindered efforts to address compliance risks and worker exploitation, the NAO added.
The report notes: "The government's approach to tackling the risks of migrant exploitation is not joined up. There is widespread evidence of exploitation in the social care sector, with increasing concerns about debt bondage, long working hours and exploitative conditions. There are no robust data on the extent of abuse. The Home Office is responsible for enforcing immigration rules and anti-slavery legislation, but other government bodies are responsible for regulating labour markets and tackling exploitation. The Public Accounts Committee has also recommended that the Department of Health and Social Care lead the sector in addressing the risks associated with international recruitment. There is insufficient clarity on respective responsibilities, including sector regulators and local government, which means that enforcement and safeguarding activity is fragmented. For example, despite efforts to improve communication, local authorities are not always aware when sponsor licences have been revoked, leaving people to remain in the UK without a valid visa. The Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority has estimated that 34,000 people in the care sector have been affected by the Home Office revoking sponsor licences."
Overall, the report concludes that while the Skilled Worker visa has been an essential tool for filling workforce gaps and has been implemented effectively in terms of application processing and applicant satisfaction, its management has been inconsistent, reactive, and lacking in strategic oversight. The Home Office has made progress in processing applications and improving compliance enforcement, but without a clearer understanding of the visa route's economic impact, sector-specific challenges, and risks of exploitation, the government cannot be confident that the system is delivering value for money.
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, commented: "The Home Office, and departments, must make better use of data to understand the impacts of changes to the Skilled Worker visa route, improve customer experiences and prevent the exploitation of visa holders. Without this understanding, it cannot ensure value for money in managing the visa system."