Reduction in healthcare visas largely responsible for falling levels of work-related immigration in wake of Conservatives' five-point plan
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford last week released an updated briefing on work visas and migrant workers in the UK, noting that recent policy changes have resulted in a sharp decline in work visas issued in the first half of 2024.
Image credit: WikipediaYou can read the briefing online here.
As the briefing explains, the number of work visas granted to non-EU citizens grew significantly between 2021 and 2023 under the post-Brexit immigration system. In 2023, 312,600 work visas were granted to non-EU citizens, a sharp increase from 137,000 in 2019. The strongest growth occurred in the Skilled Worker visa category, which saw nearly 200,000 visas issued in 2023, more than triple the number granted in 2021.
Following the introduction of the Conservatives' five-point plan announced in December 2023 to reduce record levels of net migration, the first half of 2024 saw a notable decline in Skilled Worker visas, mostly in the healthcare sector. Between January and June 2024, only 15,200 visas were granted to healthcare workers, down from 72,000 in the same period in 2023. However, visa grants for healthcare professionals remained well above pre-pandemic and pre-Brexit levels.
The Migration Observatory notes that by March 2024, 64% of Skilled Worker visas were granted to occupations newly eligible under the post-Brexit system, with 39% going to care workers, a category added to the Skilled Worker route in February 2022. Care workers, nurses, senior care workers, and doctors were the most common recipients of these visas. The health and care sector accounted for over 60% of all Skilled Worker visas in the year ending March 2024. The UK's health sector has increasingly relied on migrant workers in recent years, with the trend accelerating after the pandemic.
The briefing also highlights the significant shift in the composition of work visa recipients since the end of free movement in 2020, with a major shift away from EU citizens to non-EU citizens. In 2023, EU citizens accounted for only 7% of work visas granted, down from an estimated 45% in 2019. Indian citizens were the largest recipients of work visas in 2023, accounting for 22% of the total. Many of these visas were issued to Indian nationals under the Skilled Worker route, particularly in the health sector.
The Migration Observatory also noted in a recent press release that the decline in visa numbers seen in 2024, as reflected in the latest Home Office immigration statistics, could assist the new Labour government in meeting its commitment to reduce net migration.
The press release stated: "Home Office data showed a 156,000 (27%) reduction in the total number of visas issued, from 583,000 in January to June 2023 to 427,000 in the same period of 2024. … In the first half of 2024, 237,000 work visas were granted, compared to 304,000 in calendar year 2023."
However, the Migration Observatory noted that outside of health and care visas, the number of Skilled Worker visa applications remained constant between May-July 2023 and the same period in 2024, despite the minimum salary threshold for foreign skilled workers rising from £26,200 to £38,700 in April 2024.
Dr. Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory, suggested that visa reductions in 2024, coupled with rising emigration, could contribute to a decline in net migration in the coming year. He cautioned that the extent of the decline would depend on factors such as the number of international students remaining in the UK and any potential rebound in health and care visa grants.
Dr. Brindle said: "Visa numbers dropped in the last few months of the Conservative government and emigration has also been rising. In theory, this should mean a decline in net migration over the coming year. But the precise scale of it is hard to predict: we don't yet know how many of the recent student arrivals will remain in the UK long term, and any bounce-back in health and care visas would also slow the decline. Nonetheless, the strong indication is that Labour will be able to meet its commitment to reduce net migration from the unusually high levels the UK has recently seen, primarily due to trends that were already in train well before they were elected."