Office for Statistics Regulation to investigate Government's claim of success in clearing legacy backlog
As was very widely reported in the media this week, new statistics released by the Home Office on Tuesday showed that at the end of December 2023 the total number of asylum applications awaiting an initial decision fell below 100,000 for the first time since June 2022.
Image credit: UK GovernmentThe spreadsheet with the statistics is available here. See sheet/tab IMB_02 for the figures on asylum applications awaiting an initial decision.
June 2022 was the first month that saw the total backlog top 100,000 and it was also the month that saw the Government separate out 'legacy' asylum claims from new claims. Legacy claims are those made before 28 June 2022, which is the day when large parts of the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 come into force.
At the end of December 2023, the Home Office statistics show that the total number of asylum claims in the backlog stood at 98,599, down from a peak of 139,552 at the end of February 2023.
While the figures show that 4,537 claims remained in the legacy backlog on 28 December 2023, the Home Office claimed on Tuesday that it had still successfully met the Prime Minister's commitment to clear the legacy asylum backlog before the end of 2023.
A press release stated: "In December 2022, the Prime Minister pledged to tackle the remaining legacy asylum backlog – which had more than 92,000 cases of individuals who claimed asylum before 28 June 2022, which were still waiting for an initial decision. Fundamental changes to the decision-making process and boosting efficiency has resulted in 112,000 asylum decisions this year, and the highest annual number of substantive decisions in a year since 2002. … All cases in the legacy backlog have now been reviewed, with 86,800 decisions made."
The Home Office said the fact the cases had been 'reviewed' meant the Prime Minister's commitment had been met.
On the 4,537 claims still awaiting a decision, the Home Office explained: "While all cases have been reviewed and 112,000 decisions made overall, 4,500 complex cases have been highlighted that require additional checks or investigation for a final decision to be made. These hard cases typically relate to asylum seekers presenting as children – where age verification is taking place; those with serious medical issues; or those with suspected past convictions, where checks may reveal criminality that would bar asylum."
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said, however, that this meant the Government's claim to have cleared the legacy backlog was "just not true".
BBC News reported yesterday that the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), which monitors the use of official statistics in the UK, has said it is looking into the Government's claims.
A spokesperson for the OSR confirmed to the Financial Times on Wednesday that it had received a complaint over the claim and would be investigating the matter. According to the Financial Times, the OSR will examine the presentation and communication of all the migration data in the Government's statistics and press releases, as well as examining remarks made by ministers in the media.
The Refugee Council said that the Government's claims about their progress in clearing the asylum backlog don't paint the full picture, in particular due to the large number of withdrawn asylum claims in 2023.
"The Home Office has failed to explain why thousands have had their claim withdrawn (sometimes for admin errors such as incorrect addresses!), and at the same time it has left those who have been granted refugee protection to fend for themselves, facing homelessness and at risk of sleeping rough during the winter months," the Refugee Council said on X.
The Guardian noted on Tuesday that Home Office's statistics appear to show a growing numbers of cases being defined as withdrawn or paused and thus removed from the backlog.
The Guardian explained: "The statistics show that of the 112,138 initial asylum decisions made between January and 28 December 2023, 35,119 were 'non-substantive decisions', which include withdrawn or paused applications. This would mean that 31% of 2023 asylum decisions were withdrawn or paused, up from 22% in 2022 and 16% in 2021."
The Refugee Council's Jon Featonby told the Guardian: "We are very concerned by the high number of non-substantive decisions that were made in the process of 'clearing' the legacy asylum backlog. Withdrawing applications is not the right way to deal with claims: each claim must be considered on its own merits and applicants should receive a proper decision."
Analysis by Free Movement noted with regard to the non-substantive decisions made in 2023: "[I]t seems reasonable to conclude that the vast majority of those 35,119 decisions were withdrawals given that the statistics to the end of September 2023 showed that 18,709 applications had been withdrawn since June 2022, most of these in 2023. It has been clear since last year that the government was using this as a tool to artificially reduce the number of cases."